Im Mai 2003 erschien der Artikel "IT doesn't matter" von Nicholas G. Carr in der Harvard Business Review. Auch wenn dieser Artikel nun schon 5 Jahre alt ist, so sind seine Thesen durchaus noch aktuell. Die alles entscheidende Frage ist, ob wie Carr schon damals behauptete die Computer Revolution beendet ist. Richtig ist sicherlich, dass viele Errungenschaften dieser Revolution in den normalen Alltag eingeflossen sind. Sicherlich ist auch spätestens mit dem Börsencrash 2000/01 und dem damit verbundenen Ende der sogenannten New Economy die Übertreibung einer eher realistischen und vielleicht auch ein wenig pessimistischen Einschätzung gewichen. Gleichwohl ist vieles, was im Rahmen der New Economy entwickelt wurde, heutzutage schon fast langweilige Alltagstechnologie geworden. Der Aufbau riesiger Datenbanken, der noch vor wenigen Jahren nur für große Unternehmen bezahlbar war, ist nun aufgrund drastisch gesunkener Hardwarepreise auch für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen finanziell leistbar. So ist eine Festplatte mit 1 Terabyte Speicherkapazität inzwischen schon für 115 € erhältlich. Vor etwa 5 Jahren bekam man für 100 € eine externe Festplatte mit 80 GB Kapazität, heute ist einer 500 GB Festplatte schon für 65 € erhältlich. Mein erster DVD Brenner kostete damals im Sonderangebot 129 €, heute sind diese Geräte teilweise schon für 20 € bei besserer Leistung erhältlich. Während ich Ende 2000 noch 1150 DM (knapp 600 €) für einen PC ohne Betriebssystem zahlen musste, ist ein brauchbarer Office-PC inzwischen schon für 200 € erhältlich. Die Preise für Einsteiger-Notebook sind im selben Zeitraum von etwa 2000 DM (1000 €) auf 350 - 400 € gefallen. Ein Computer ist inzwischen kein Luxusgegenstand mehr (ebensowenig wie ein Mobiltelefon), sondern für die meisten Leute durchaus erschwinglich. Gleiches gilt für einen schnellen Internet-Zugang. Zumindest insofern man nicht das Pech hat, dass an seinem Wohnort kein DSL verfügbar ist.
Durch den Preisverfall im Bereich der Hardware, Software (nicht zuletzt aufgrund von Open-Source-Alternativen) und der Kommunikationskosten ist es schwerer geworden, sich durch IT einen dauerhaften Vorsprung vor seinen Konkurrenten zu sichern. Auch komplexe Standard ERP-Systeme wie SAP R/3, die lange Zeit nur für Großunternehmen finanzierbar waren, sind z.B. über Hosting Lösungen auch für mittelgroße Unternehmen bezahlbar geworden. Ob sie im Einzelfall sinnvoll sind, steht auf einem anderen Blatt. Damit können nun auch kleinere Unternehmen von den prinzipiellen Vorteilen einer standardisierten ERP-Lösung (wie z.B. kostengünstiger Weiterentwicklung aufgrund größere Nutzerzahl und bessere Vernetzung der verschiedenen Module) profitieren. Die bisherigen Nachteile gegenüber Individualsoftware wie die höheren Hardwareanforderungen, nicht zuletzt aufgrund größerer Komplexität, um die verschiedenartigen Anforderungen der einzelnen Anwender unter einen Hut zu bringen, verlieren dabei zunehmend an Gewicht. Gleichwohl bleibt selbstverständlich die optimale Nutzung der Möglichkeiten, die EDV bietet ein entscheidender Faktor, um im Wettbewerb zu überleben.
Sicherlich ist auch richtig, dass aus den oben angeführten Gründen auch IT Investitionen stärker als früher unter Kosten-/Nutzenaspekten betrachtet werden müssen, da sie inzwischen keinen strategischen Wettbewerbsvorteil bieten.
Dass wie Carr zitiert 70% der Speicherkapazität in typischen Windows-Computernetzen Verschwendung sind, spielt bei den inzwischen drastisch gesunkenen Hardwarepreisen eigentlich kaum eine Rolle. Maßnahmen, die diese Verschwendung vermeiden sollen, könnten sich schnell als kontraproduktiv erweisen. Ebenso wird sich Software als Service nur in wenigen Anwendungsbereichen als sinnvoll erweisen, da für Standardanwendungen inzwischen die Software kostenlos verfügbar ist. Nicht auch zuletzt die zunehmende Überwachungsmentalität in vielen Staaten wird viele Anwender davon abhalten, private Daten ins Netz zu stellen. Auch ist es die Frage, inwieweit man dem Anbieter dieses Service Vertrauen dahingehend schenkt, dass er diese Daten nicht missbraucht. Weiterhin bleibt in diesem Fall das Problem der Offline Verfügbarkeit. Ich zumindest möchte privat keinen Computer, der nur funktioniert, wenn auch meine Breitbandverbindung läuft. Der sogenannte Thin-Client ist vielleicht der Traum gewisser Hardwareanbieter, wird aber bei den Anwendern eher weniger Akzeptanz finden. Gleichwohl kann er in bestimmten Systemumgebungen sinnvoll sein. Allerdings dürfte der Einsatz von virtuellen Maschinen zunehmen.
Die neuen Regeln für das IT-Management, die Carr verkündet, teile ich hingegen nur bedingt. Er empfiehlt, erstens weniger auszugeben, zweitens nur zu folgen statt zu führen und drittens sich auf Verwundbarkeiten zu konzentrieren statt auf Möglichkeiten. Verschwendung von finanziellen Ressourcen ist in allen Unternehmensbereichen zu vermeiden und damit nicht unbedingt nur ein IT Problem. Ob man beim Einsatz einer neuen IT-Technologie führt oder folgt, sollte in erster Linie davon abhängig, in welchen Zeitraum sich der Einsatz dieser Technologie rentiert. Warum soll ein Unternehmen vielleicht fünf oder zehn Jahre warten mit dem Einsatz, wenn sich der Einsatz eventuell schon nach wenigen Monaten rechnet. Wenn z.B. der Einsatz dieser Technologie 5 Millionen € kosten, jährlich aber 10 Millionen eingespart, ist es unsinnig zwei Jahre zu warten, bis die Technologie vielleicht nur noch 1 Millionen kostet. Selbst wenn man in diesem Fall, bereits nach drei Jahren, wieder auf eine neue Lösung portieren muss, weil die laufenden Kosten der alten Lösung zu hoch sind. Sicherlich sollte auf teure Prestigeprojekte verzichtet werden, aber auch das gilt in allen Bereichen. Auch lassen sich manchmal mit geringen Anfangsetats große Erfolge erzielen. In vielen Fällen ist auch die Anwendung des sogenannten Pareto-Prinzip sinnvoll. Das heißt, dass zunächst die großen Baustellen möglich kostengünstig beseitigt werden sollen, um damit Zeit zu gewinnen für die vielen kleinen Details. Die eierlegende Wollmilchsau ist nur selten die beste Lösung. Letztendlich muss man im IT-Bereich akzeptieren, dass sämtliche Lösungen ohnehin nur Übergangslösungen sind. Auch sind die angesprochen Studien, die diesen Regeln zugrunde liegen, skeptisch zu betrachten. Vielleicht sind bei den erfolgreichen Unternehmen, die IT-Kosten nur deshalb so niedrig, weil es ihnen gelungen ist, die Projekte kosten- und nutzeneffizient umzusetzen, während die erfolglosen Unternehmen hohe IT-Kosten haben aufgrund gescheiterter IT-Konzepte.
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